George W. Bush's margins of victory over Vice
President Gore in the three Mid-South states mirrored the margins
forecast by a public opinion poll conducted for The Commercial
Appeal.
The survey, conducted by Ethridge &
Associates LLC Oct. 29-Nov. 1, accurately predicted the percentage
of the vote Bush and Gore received in Tennessee - 51 percent and 47
percent, respectively. The poll's margin of error for Tennessee was
3.9 percentage points.
In Arkansas, the survey gave Bush 51 percent and Gore 47 percent.
The actual vote on Tuesday was 51 percent Bush and 45 percent Gore,
within the poll's 5.8-point margin of error for Arkansas.
In Mississippi, where the newspaper's survey had projected a Bush
win by 26 points, the actual vote gave the Texas governor a 16-point
margin.
Steven C. Ethridge, founder of the Cordova-based
marketing firm that conducted the poll, attributed the lower margin
to a stronger turnout for Gore and a weaker turnout for Bush among
those who told pollsters they were undecided but leaning toward one
of the candidates.
Ethridge, a former executive associate of The
Gallup Organization, has conducted public opinion surveys for The
Commercial Appeal for the past three years.
Appeal